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Hồi quy thứ tự - SPSS - Vietlod
Thực hành hồi quy thứ tự - Ordinal Regression SPSS I. GIỚI THIỆU HỒI QUY THỨ TỰ
Hồi quy thứ tự (Ordinal regression) hay còn được gọi là hồi quy logit thứ tự (Ordinal logistic regression) được dùng để dự báo giá trị của một biến phụ thuộc dạng thứ tự theo một hoặc nhiều biến độc lập. Nó có thể được xem là dạng tổng quát của hồi quy đa biến hoặc hồi quy logit. Ví dụ, bạn có thể dùng hồi quy thứ tự để dự báo về tỉ lệ bị béo phì so với các trường hợp bình thường hoặc thừa cân theo các yếu tố như tuổi tác, giới tính, mức độ vận động. Trong đó tình trạng béo phì là biến phụ thuộc bao gồm 3 giá trị là bình thường, thừa cân và béo phì.
Mục đích thực hiện hồi quy thứ tự là kiểm tra các biến độc lập có tác động ý nghĩa đến biến phụ thuộc hay không. Trong ví dụ trên, giả sử một đối tượng tăng thêm một tuổi tỉ lệ bị béo phì so với 2 trường hợp còn lại tăng/giảm như thế nào; hoặc là tỉ lệ bị béo phì so với 2 trường hợp còn lại ở nam giới có nhiều hơn nữ giới hay không…
Hồi quy thứ tự được thực hiện dựa trên 4 giả định sau:
Biến phụ thuộc là biến dạng thứ tự, chẳng hạn các biến sử dụng thang đo Likert (3 bậc, 5 bậc hoặc 7 bậc). Tham khảo bài viết các loại thang đo trong phân tích dữ liệu. Biến độc lập có thể là biến liên tục, thứ tự hoặc phân loại (bao gồm cả nhị phân). Không có sự đa cộng tuyến giữa các biến độc lập. Giả định về tỉ lệ khả dĩ. Mối quan hệ giữa mỗi cặp trong các nhóm kết quả là như nhau. Giả sử, biến kết quả của chúng ta có 4 nhóm (1, 2, 3, và 4) trong đó theo thứ tự 1 là nhóm thấp nhất và 4 là nhóm cao nhất. Khi đó, hồi quy logit thứ tự giả định rằng các hệ số mô tả mối quan hệ giữa nhóm thấp nhất (1) với các nhóm cao hơn (2, 3, 4) cũng tương tự như mối quan hệ giữa nhóm thấp kế tiếp với các nhóm cao hơn (3, 4, 1),… Điều này được gọi là giả định tỉ lệ khả dĩ (proportional odds) hay là giả định hồi quy song song (parallel regression assumption). Bởi vì mối quan hệ của mỗi cặp trong các nhóm là giống nhau nên mô hình chỉ có một tập các hệ số ước lượng. Nếu điều này vi phạm có nghĩa mô hình không phù hợp và chúng ta cần sử dụng một mô hình khác thay thế (chẳng hạn như mô hình hồi quy logit thứ tự tổng quát) để mô tả mối quan hệ giữa mỗi cặp của các nhóm kết quả.
Trong SPSS, hồi quy thứ tự có thể được thực hiện bằng thủ tục PLUM hoặc GELIN. So với thủ tục GELIN thì PLUM thực hiện nhanh và đơn giản hơn so với GELIN.
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